On platforms & people… (or my attempt at a smart title)
It took me a while to compose this post. The thoughts (a mix of tips, rumors, speculation and analysis) swirling about my head were many and varied and I found it difficult to fit them into a well-written piece. Eventually, I had to set my limits for the scope of this post to be pretty narrow to get it done. Without further ado, here’s the meat of the matter then.
Microsoft began life, as we all know, as a PC assembler of sorts; then moved on to an OS licensing model with its acquisition of DOS. Its next major move was into the app vendor business with Office for Mac. Subsequently, it went after its platform ambitions with Windows and for the most part, this has remained its forte ever since. So, Windows has been Microsoft’ lifeblood for quite a while now, and if I understand correctly, the company has every intention of maintaining this structure for the foreseeable future. Many in the media and financial markets have been forecasting for more years than I can remember that this undying fealty to Windows will be the undoing of the company. The short-sightedness of these doomsayers is in their presumption that the company is incapable of evolving Windows to meet the needs of the market. It is nearly certain that Microsoft will never be the first among its competitors to find success in new consumer markets, but this will not bar it from bringing innovation to the table or getting part of the pie. There is little doubt that the stock price is going nowhere then, and Ballmer (and his successors) will stick around by sheer force of will.
It may strike you that I’ve said nothing about Windows v.Next yet, and that’s because any discussion of Windows includes discussion of company politics, so strongly do they influence each other. Well, you may say, do Office, Xbox, Bing and Zune mean nothing then? ‘Course not, but understand that they are layers on Windows in one way or another. Technically this is obvious enough but you can see it in the branding: Windows Live Office, Windows Phone etc.
This leads us to Windows “everywhere”. That’s pretty much the company line now, although it does not imply that all “Windows” products will look or work the same. The idea is that to its customers, Microsoft as a brand doesn’t exist. People know Windows and XBOX. That’s it. There is a distant goal to get Bing up there. But all new products must fall in line with one of the above. Are you an “open” platform? You are henceforth branded Windows XYZ. Closed platform, hmm, you must be Xbox and so on. Zune, Bing, Office are all cross-platform services, secondary to platforms.
So all Microsoft has to do for a new product is to choose the Windows or Xbox strategy and brand it accordingly. So they’re calling the phone, slate, the cloud and car platforms Windows, but the TV platform will most definitely be the Xbox.
I guess that brings us to Windows 8, Windows slate and Windows phone. With the slate form factor, the immediate future is OEM customization over Windows 7. Then comes Windows 8, wherein the native “shell” will optimize for slates, when it is run in that configuration (much like how certain bits of tablet, touch & mobility stuff in 7 appear only on specific hardware classes). The Windows Marketplace will surface applications that provide UI suited to slates in such cases. Of course, end-users can still get non-touch optimized apps as they do now. Developers on the Phone market will be encouraged to port their apps & games to slates (very easy, since Silverlight + XNA are cross-platform). The hardware platform will continue to be x86 with 8 so as to simplify updating native code Windows apps for the new platform & APIs. Legacy apps will be supported with Compatibility mode—a virtualization layer. With these advances, Windows 8 will still target to be fully performant on 7’s minimum specs. Obviously, adoption of solid state storage, better displays, USB 3 etc. will be encouraged, but more importantly, the Sensors platform will be substantially more refined and complete. In addition, 8 will allow third-party developers to use Office 2010’s click-to-run feature, the “personal cloud” allocated to each Windows Live user will be accessible as part of pooled storage and use the mesh framework to sync the appropriate bits across devices. Windows applications that are sold through the marketplace will roam with the user (Live ID) rather than being stuck to one PC (there will limits on the number of devices of course, much like WP7). The roaming can be quite literal with if the developer makes use of Azure platform’s App-V/AppFabric. All of these efforts (along with those that were found in the slides leak months ago) will make Windows 8 devices more appliance-like in ease of use and reliability. Finally, speaking of Live integration (tip of the hat to Neowin) & HTML5/IE9 as a platform, elements of MSR’s “social desktop” project will debut with 8.
So, one can rule out the idea that Windows phone 7 (in its current state) will do slate duties anytime in the near future. The reasons for this decision are manifold. Technically speaking, it is just as ill-suited for slates as Windows 7 is right now, because the UI is not optimized for 7 to 10 inch screens. Add to this the fact that the number of Windows applications far outstrips that of Windows phone right now, makes using the phone OS on slates a bit of a gamble. Consider also that Windows 7 has been a great success, and Windows 8 planning was in place well before phone 7 found its feet. Interestingly, while it may look different, WP7 is in many ways closer to Windows than WinMo ever was. Consider how WP7 seeks to commoditize smartphone hardware by forcing OEMs to compete on design and pricing alone, because the software is the same. This is more like desktop Windows. I can’t even begin to comprehend why the company was allowing OEMs to butcher WinMo before, while it sat on its massive behind for years on end (that role is filled by Android now, only the source of revenue is different). Microsoft also now has priority control over updates, much like it does on the desktop.
The second set of reasons is entirely political. As of now, there are two foci of power left in the company. Steve B and Steve Si. Ballmer has either by choice, by attrition, or by each person’s own follies found himself in a place where Allchin, Gates, Bach, Elop, Ozzie are all gone, leaving only one man with any interest or spine to reach for the top when he leaves. Scott Gu may be much liked, but he is happy where he is and Lees (a cunning idiot) and Mettrick (has potential, too young to last long) have yet to prove themselves (how WP7 and KINECT perform in 2011-12 is what really counts). As has been stated so often on Mini, Sinofsky would very much have liked to oversee (indirectly) Windows phone & Zune (but not Xbox or Auto), but now that Ballmer has put himself more directly in charge, he will have to be CEO first to do that. In five odd years, I wouldn’t be surprised (with Win 9 & nextbox on their way). In the meanwhile, after PDC 10, it is more obvious than ever that CEO replacements aside, the company needs to identify someone with stage presence in the interim to do most of the talking. Barring Brandon Watson’s talk, the rest of the keynote was incredibly slow, dull and full of MBA or engineer-speak. PDC may be for developers, but much of the stuff in the keynote should have been covered in sessions only, maybe reducing it down to one hour.
This brings me nicely to the Xbox. What a tremendous story! Perhaps the one division that will push the Windows brand out of a market & make its imprint on Windows to boot. The magical subscription unicorn that Microsoft toyed with for ages by Windows and Office and finally brought around with Azure & 365 happened on the Xbox first. The LIVE brand happened here first. The doll-house of Media Center & IPTV was realized on Xbox. Zune owes its existence to Xbox. And then there’s KINECT. Xbox has rapidly become incubation for Windows v.Next features, the immediate effects of which will be based on Kinect & GfW. When MSR is downsized (probably by next year), this division will get as much of the remains devoted to it as Windows, Phone and Office. And it’ll all be justified when the nextbox is delivered in 3 to 4 years. I’m calling it the Xbox TV.
So, after this massive piece of writing (for a blog, scratch that, hobby, anyway), do I think that Microsoft is flawless? Are things all peachy in Ballmer-land? ‘Course not. For one, I fear the “wait for two years” strategy may bite them in the ass when competitors figure out everything in the company’s playbook (no pun intended). Specifically, the decision to wait on Intel to get x86 to catch up with ARM could prove problematic and Intel has messed up in the past. Then there’s the danger that Lees gets promoted. Also, if Wall Street forces in a new CEO, either the company’s short-term strategy or Windows will suffer. Midori is of course up for trouble at any time now that Ozzie and some technical fellows have left. Hopefully, Allard’s return as “design & integration adviser” (a title I made up) to Ballmer might allay my fears a teensy bit. Hopefully, the company’s efforts around ARM in Xbox are bleeding into slates & phones. Hopefully the unification efforts around Metro coalesce properly with Zune, Xbox & Windows working together. It’s mostly all up in the air though, and Apple does have the $50b and counting stashed up to wreak havoc in so many ways.
Good luck, then, Microsoft! We’ll compare notes in five odd years.
